What Are The Odds? 8 Years of Feeling The Burns
QIC: Burns
Date: 1.15.26
PAX: Greenspan (Run In, 6x), Mutton (5x), Van Gogh (4x), Zima (3x), Rollback (EC, 1x), Draftee (1x), Frostbite (1x), Burns (QIC, 8x)
YHC’s long-running tradition of hosting the WIB closest to my F3ception date continues for another year!
*OF NOTE: We will start at 0515 this year to accommodate YHC’s new job. CoT will be at 0600. If you would like to still start at 0530, there will be at least one pax to push you through until 0615.
How does this workout go? Read for yourselves:
If you don’t want to read all that, here’s what you can expect Thursday morning:
Roll the dice (5 B&W, 2 red/yellow). Complete burpees x sum of the red/yellow dice, and complete the first exercise on the weinke x sum of the B&W dice. Run a lap around one of the buildings. Come back to the launch, roll the dice again. Complete burpees x sum of the red/yellow dice, and complete exercises 1 & 2 on the weinke x sum of the B&W dice. Run a lap around the other building. Keep going and try to make it through all 8 exercises on the weinke before 45 mins is up. This has never been completed before, and we’ll see if this is finally the year the weinke will fall.
This year’s exercises:
- Squats
- Merkins
- Low Flutters
- Carolina Dry Docks
- Bonnie Blairs
- Diamond Merkins
- WWIIs
- Mike Tysons
SYITG!
This year’s version was *almost* conquered by VG and Rollback – they lit out on their 8th and final lap with about 90 seconds to spare and didn’t quite make it back in time. But I told them I would note in the backblast that they were so so so close.
I was grateful to be joined by 7 others at the abnormal start time. YHC mentioned to some folks in attendance that if WIB preblasts ever come back the way they used to be published every Tuesday or at the very latest Wednesday evening, maybe the 0515 start could become an informal thing for the middle school dads/teachers/administrators out there. One can dream.
The rolls: 10/21, 5/21, 7/10, 8/21, 5/21, 7/20, 7/24, 8/17. My big “What are the odds?” question hanging over this workout is this: What is the likelihood that if you roll five dice eight times that four of the rolls would add up to 21? After crunching some numbers, it appears that the answer is 0.00174%. That’s not a very high probability, it seems. Here’s how you get there, btw. If the sum of all 5 dice = x then P(x=21) = .0694. Which means that p(x/=21) = .9306. For four rolls to equal the same number you raise that probability to the power of 4, and likewise for the four other rolls to not equal that number. (.0694)^4 * (.9306)^4 = .0000174. Mathematicians, check my work please.
The effort: Maximum. Mutton loves this beatdown. Greenspan loves this beatdown. Van Gogh wants to destroy this beatdown. I obviously have a special place in my heart for this beatdown. Zima wants to dominate the form of every exercise of this beatdown. Rollback, Frostbite, and Draftee were newcomers to the beatdown.
The quotes: “Here comes the wall…I can feel it.” “Finally, a reasonable exercise! (referring to WWIIs)” “I don’t care, I’m running my last lap anyways.” “Did you even roll the dice that time?” “He shook them more than twice, I think he was playing with them.” “*generic groaning*”
The announcements: Samaritan Ministries Monday, GreeNest Saturday, Bev’s HOPE run next Saturday 1/24
The prayers: Rollback’s M recovering from surgery, VG’s coworker Cody lost his father unexpectedly
Zephyr, the keys are about 100m from the finish line. Doesn’t look like they’ll get there in time but they’ll be super close and might tell you they finished.
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